Fear of State Collapse and Prospect of Democratic Transition in Ethiopia

Photo: Rod Waddington

Ethiopia is in the throes of worsening multidimensional crises. The dominant party political system that was installed in the early 1990s has atrophied and fragmented. The crony capitalist economic system that emerged under the tutelage of the dominant party rule has clogged up the system with pervasive corruption, economic inequality and an insatiable rent-seeking oligarchy. In the last few years, this system has faced a trifecta of adverse forces of declining revenue, capital flight and diminishing investment. The security sector, the military and intelligence apparatus, is deeply involved in the fluid political atmosphere as an instrument of a rentier class of politicians and military commanders. It is engaged in extremely expensive project of suppressing protests around the country. In the context of shrinking economy, the expensive military and security operations have not only exacerbated the security problems, they also have nibbled to extinction the precarious legitimacy left for the federal government.